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Falling in love with a company, its services or its products is well-known to cause its stockholders more financial harm than good. Avoiding this trap is a common advice. And it's a good one.
A Concrete Example
As a real past example, let me tell you about when I invested in Jamba Juice (JMBA), the smoothie shop that is so ubiquitous and keeps expanding. I thought the concept was great. After all, being from Brazil, I know how popular freshly-squeezed fruit juice and smoothies are over there. The fact that Jamba was aggressively expanding outside of its home state of California was a big plus.
This was back in 2005, and I had just discovered Jamba Juice. I immediately fell in love with the idea and wanted to invest in it. But Jamba was a private company back then and all they gave me was a discount coupon when I offered to invest some money into the company. Silly me.
So I waited for its IPO and then waited some more for the post-IPO hype to die down. In 2007, I finally decided to buy, based on its expansion plans, and a lot of excitement about its products and business model. After all, who wouldn't want to buy a Jamba Juice smoothie?
Result?
Price paid: $6.49 per share in 2007.
Current price: $2.37.
Maximum price in the last two years: $3.83.
Dividends paid: $0.
Now you do the math.
What went wrong? First, I didn't stop to analyze the market. I assumed everyone must love smoothies. But it turns out that outside of California, Hawaii and Florida people don't care as much about smoothies. Moreover, only during the summer months do people care enough to look for Jamba's colorful stores. Also, Jamba's expansion plans were so aggressive and it expanded so quickly that it had to close some poorly-performing stores, hurting the bottom line.
And how could this business model be so popular in Brazil? Despite the weather differences, juice and smoothie shops in Brazil typically freshly squeeze their fruits in front of customers, while Jamba mainly freshly blends fruit concentrate with a sugary "dairy base", according to their own in-store information.
I took my losses on JMBA today, after keeping a shred of hope for the last 3+ years.
Conclusion: it pays to look beyond products and services before investing. Look at the market, management quality, financial situation and company expansion plans.
Avoiding a Current Trap
With the lesson learned from Jamba Juice, I recently avoided a similar trap.
I'm a big fan of Vitacost, my supplier of vitamins, herbs, protein, etc. Their products have the lowest price, they ship super fast and their customer service is great. In fact, over the many years I've been using them, I've only had two minor problems with shipping, which they resolved so quickly and satisfactorily that I even wonder if they caused the problem on purpose so that I would fall in love with their speedy customer service.
Sounds like an ad for them, right? But I'm in no way affiliated with them. And that's for the betterment of my pocket.
You see, I wanted to invest in Vitacost for a while and like with Jamba Juice, it was still private when I first thought about investing in them. Today, I discovered that they've been public since 2009, ticker VITC. So I started looking into a possible investment.
Even before turning to their financials I find a slew of terrible news about the company. First, it failed to file for the required paperwork with NASDAQ and it is at risk of being delisted. The CEO has left recently, and it is postponing its shareholder meeting. Worse, it's being sued by not one, but three law firms for security irregularities. Something about its executive team having allegedly lied about its products, services and financial strength to mislead investors into a higher valuation.
Of course, all the bad news could mean that the stock price is depressed and when things are resolved this could be a terrific opportunity to buy. However, for a company with such short track record and with so many problems accumulating right out of the gate, I can't even start considering an investment in it.
I will continue to enjoy Vitacost's good product selection and quality service. But I'm not buying any piece of the company any time soon.
Conclusion
The advice "don't fall in love with your stock" is a good one. Treat all your investments as anonymous machines working for you. If they fail to work for your best interests, it's time to replace them. There's a large pool of good ones out there. All you have to do is do your due diligence, look at the fundamentals and choose carefully.
Disclosures: No position in any of the above mentioned securities as of the time of writing.
2011-02-09
2011-01-31
Why Abbott Looks Cheap
The pharmaceutical juggernaut Abbott Laboratories looks reasonably cheap these days. Its shares have been going down for the past few weeks and it's a good buying opportunity in my opinion. Here's why.
Consistent Dividend Growth
Abbott has grown dividends consistently for over 25 years. It's part of the Dividend Aristocrats index maintained by S&P. Not only that, but ABT has grown dividends an annualized 9.33% over the last 11 years. On average, the year-over-year dividend growth has also been around the same ballpark, 9.45% (the average and the annualized 11-year return can differ in case most of the growth was in one or just a few years as opposed to consistent over time. When they match, it's a sign the growth has been sustained over time).
Consistent Earnings Growth
A consistent dividend growth needs to be accompanied by a consistent earnings growth too or the dividend is not sustainable. Over the same last 11 years, ABT has had an annualized earnings growth of 9.31%, which comes in very close to its annualized dividend growth. This means that dividend growth is supported by earnings growth directly, which is a good sign. It means the company is passing through all of its extra earnings back to shareholders via dividend increases.
Some people prefer to see earnings growth slightly surpass dividend growth to be on the safe side. But by doing so, it means the company is increasing its cash reserves and I would want to understand why. It could mean an acquisition is coming up or the company is expecting to have higher expenses going forward (patent disputes, lawsuits, etc). So, higher earnings growth per se is neither good or bad, but must be understood. In the case of Abbott, for the past 11 years earnings and dividend growth have matched, which can only mean the company is growing smoothly and not becoming lopsided in anyway, neither increasing cash reserves nor depleting it, hence a very good sign in my opinion.
Consistent Sales Growth
Just because earnings growth have been consistent during this time does not necessarily mean the company is actually generating more cash since earnings can be so easily manipulated. However, 11 years is a long time, especially when the earnings can be seen in form of dividends during this time (it's a lot harder to fake real cash in your pocket than it is on an income statement). Nonetheless, let's see how Abbott fares in sales growth, which is a more direct way of assessing where growth is coming from.
For the past 10 years, sales have grown an annualized 8%. This is only slightly less than the 9% earnings growth, which indicates that for the most part sales have kept pace with earnings. It also indicates that the company has been aggressive at cutting costs at a rate of 1% per year. In the long run I'd expect earnings and dividend growth to slow down to catch up to sales growth. Still, 8% is a good growth rate to have.
Dividend Yield is Moderately High
At a price of approximately $45.50 and with an annual dividend of $1.76, ABT sports a dividend yield of 3.8%, which is pretty decent in today's market. When factoring in a 8-9% growth, it means investors can expect a return of 11-13% on their investment going forward, minus inflation and plus any share price appreciation.
Implied Price using Dividend Discount Model
Treating a share of ABT as a bond and investing in it just for the dividend using the Dividend Discount Model, I came up with a price range for ABT of between $59 and $44. This means that ABT is undervalued at the time of writing. My assumptions were a 10-11% discount and 7% dividend growth, which, given the track record of sales growth of 8% is still a little conservative.
Other Considerations
Other things to consider before investing: why is ABT going down in the past several weeks? No single news piece accounts for this decline, but a more thorough investigation is warranted.
One a price-to-earnings basis, ABT looks fairly valued with a tailing P/E of about 15. However, its forward P/E is only 10, since ABT expects to earn between $4.54 and $4.64 per share in 2011.
Conclusion
All things considered, ABT looks cheap to me. I'm buying shares of Abbott (ABT) at the time of writing. Please do your own analysis before buying.
Disclosures: I own shares of ABT at the time of writing.
Consistent Dividend Growth
Abbott has grown dividends consistently for over 25 years. It's part of the Dividend Aristocrats index maintained by S&P. Not only that, but ABT has grown dividends an annualized 9.33% over the last 11 years. On average, the year-over-year dividend growth has also been around the same ballpark, 9.45% (the average and the annualized 11-year return can differ in case most of the growth was in one or just a few years as opposed to consistent over time. When they match, it's a sign the growth has been sustained over time).
Consistent Earnings Growth
A consistent dividend growth needs to be accompanied by a consistent earnings growth too or the dividend is not sustainable. Over the same last 11 years, ABT has had an annualized earnings growth of 9.31%, which comes in very close to its annualized dividend growth. This means that dividend growth is supported by earnings growth directly, which is a good sign. It means the company is passing through all of its extra earnings back to shareholders via dividend increases.
Some people prefer to see earnings growth slightly surpass dividend growth to be on the safe side. But by doing so, it means the company is increasing its cash reserves and I would want to understand why. It could mean an acquisition is coming up or the company is expecting to have higher expenses going forward (patent disputes, lawsuits, etc). So, higher earnings growth per se is neither good or bad, but must be understood. In the case of Abbott, for the past 11 years earnings and dividend growth have matched, which can only mean the company is growing smoothly and not becoming lopsided in anyway, neither increasing cash reserves nor depleting it, hence a very good sign in my opinion.
Consistent Sales Growth
Just because earnings growth have been consistent during this time does not necessarily mean the company is actually generating more cash since earnings can be so easily manipulated. However, 11 years is a long time, especially when the earnings can be seen in form of dividends during this time (it's a lot harder to fake real cash in your pocket than it is on an income statement). Nonetheless, let's see how Abbott fares in sales growth, which is a more direct way of assessing where growth is coming from.
For the past 10 years, sales have grown an annualized 8%. This is only slightly less than the 9% earnings growth, which indicates that for the most part sales have kept pace with earnings. It also indicates that the company has been aggressive at cutting costs at a rate of 1% per year. In the long run I'd expect earnings and dividend growth to slow down to catch up to sales growth. Still, 8% is a good growth rate to have.
Dividend Yield is Moderately High
At a price of approximately $45.50 and with an annual dividend of $1.76, ABT sports a dividend yield of 3.8%, which is pretty decent in today's market. When factoring in a 8-9% growth, it means investors can expect a return of 11-13% on their investment going forward, minus inflation and plus any share price appreciation.
Implied Price using Dividend Discount Model
Treating a share of ABT as a bond and investing in it just for the dividend using the Dividend Discount Model, I came up with a price range for ABT of between $59 and $44. This means that ABT is undervalued at the time of writing. My assumptions were a 10-11% discount and 7% dividend growth, which, given the track record of sales growth of 8% is still a little conservative.
Other Considerations
Other things to consider before investing: why is ABT going down in the past several weeks? No single news piece accounts for this decline, but a more thorough investigation is warranted.
One a price-to-earnings basis, ABT looks fairly valued with a tailing P/E of about 15. However, its forward P/E is only 10, since ABT expects to earn between $4.54 and $4.64 per share in 2011.
Conclusion
All things considered, ABT looks cheap to me. I'm buying shares of Abbott (ABT) at the time of writing. Please do your own analysis before buying.
Disclosures: I own shares of ABT at the time of writing.
2011-01-23
Are Muni Bonds Cheap Again?
Back in 2009 Munis got a lot of attention because several states were in trouble, meaning they couldn't service their debt loads. The situation is not much different now and still most muni issues are still being serviced.
So, what has changed?
For one, their credit ratings. Specifically, two California issues I own (one of which I discussed back in 2009) are now back in investment-grade camp. Both 13062TPU2 and 13062TSB1 started 2009 as A+ issues and were downgraded to BAA1 (or BBB as Fitch calls it). Both are now back to A-, as of late 2010. And yet, their prices have fallen recently, probably in anticipation of more ugliness ahead.
However, these two issues are still paying their coupons and both are fully backed by the state's taxing authority. No disclosures of other material events have been filed with the MSRB.
In this case, should a California-based investor buy more?
I can't see why not, at least in the short term. Even if inflation picks up, it's unlikely to pick up so fast as to obsolete these papers, whose coupons are 4.5%, but are yielding now about 6.2%, tax free, at approximately $78 per issue.
Therefore, I'm officially adding to my position. The only trick is that the market is so illiquid now that these bonds are not being offered on a daily basis. Investors must request offers, which are hard to come by. Patience shall be rewarded.
Disclosures: I own both bond issues mentioned above. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment.
So, what has changed?
For one, their credit ratings. Specifically, two California issues I own (one of which I discussed back in 2009) are now back in investment-grade camp. Both 13062TPU2 and 13062TSB1 started 2009 as A+ issues and were downgraded to BAA1 (or BBB as Fitch calls it). Both are now back to A-, as of late 2010. And yet, their prices have fallen recently, probably in anticipation of more ugliness ahead.
However, these two issues are still paying their coupons and both are fully backed by the state's taxing authority. No disclosures of other material events have been filed with the MSRB.
In this case, should a California-based investor buy more?
I can't see why not, at least in the short term. Even if inflation picks up, it's unlikely to pick up so fast as to obsolete these papers, whose coupons are 4.5%, but are yielding now about 6.2%, tax free, at approximately $78 per issue.
Therefore, I'm officially adding to my position. The only trick is that the market is so illiquid now that these bonds are not being offered on a daily basis. Investors must request offers, which are hard to come by. Patience shall be rewarded.
Disclosures: I own both bond issues mentioned above. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment.
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